← Phantom Monarchs Store Championship @ TOTL Games

EV ranking

How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Phantom Monarchs Store Championship @ TOTL Games. EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O), renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5. Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead -- same math, skill-controlled. Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches) — read them as rough estimates.

#Archetype Decks Share Matches Winrate Adj WR EV Adj EV Avg ELO Skew
1 Water Genbu 2 18.2% 5 90.0% 65.4% 57.3% 54.3% 1376 ↑ top
2 Fire Crux Lorraine 2 18.2% 8 62.5% 54.2% 52.9% 51.9% 1320 ↑ top
3 Wind Shadowstrike 1 9.1% 4 50.0% 48.1% 50.0% 48.7% 1435 ↑ top
4 Wind Chess 1 9.1% 4 62.5% 53.6% 50.0% 49.3% 1201 ↓ low
5 Water Tera Mage 1 9.1% 4 50.0% 58.0% 48.3% 52.4% 1176 ↓ low
6 Wind Umbra Guardian 1 9.1% 4 50.0% 51.0% 46.7% 47.9% 1215 ↓ low
7 Water Aetherwing 1 9.1% 4 25.0% 42.6% 43.3% 46.0% 1176 ↓ low
8 Wind Alice 1 9.1% 3 0.0% 32.7% 40.0% 41.9% 1134 ↓ low
9 Water Fractal 1 9.1% 2 0.0% 34.3% 40.0% 40.6% 1215 ↓ low