← Phantom Monarchs Store Championship @ TOTL Games
EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Phantom Monarchs Store Championship @ TOTL Games.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Water Genbu | 2 | 18.2% | 5 | 90.0% | 65.4% | 57.3% | 54.3% | 1376 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Fire Crux Lorraine | 2 | 18.2% | 8 | 62.5% | 54.2% | 52.9% | 51.9% | 1320 | ↑ top |
| 3 | Wind Shadowstrike | 1 | 9.1% | 4 | 50.0% | 48.1% | 50.0% | 48.7% | 1435 | ↑ top |
| 4 | Wind Chess | 1 | 9.1% | 4 | 62.5% | 53.6% | 50.0% | 49.3% | 1201 | ↓ low |
| 5 | Water Tera Mage | 1 | 9.1% | 4 | 50.0% | 58.0% | 48.3% | 52.4% | 1176 | ↓ low |
| 6 | Wind Umbra Guardian | 1 | 9.1% | 4 | 50.0% | 51.0% | 46.7% | 47.9% | 1215 | ↓ low |
| 7 | Water Aetherwing | 1 | 9.1% | 4 | 25.0% | 42.6% | 43.3% | 46.0% | 1176 | ↓ low |
| 8 | Wind Alice | 1 | 9.1% | 3 | 0.0% | 32.7% | 40.0% | 41.9% | 1134 | ↓ low |
| 9 | Water Fractal | 1 | 9.1% | 2 | 0.0% | 34.3% | 40.0% | 40.6% | 1215 | ↓ low |