← TDK Phantom Monarchs Store Championship

EV ranking

How well each archetype is positioned against the field at TDK Phantom Monarchs Store Championship. EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O), renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5. Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead -- same math, skill-controlled. Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches) — read them as rough estimates.

#Archetype Decks Share Matches Winrate Adj WR EV Adj EV Avg ELO Skew
1 Wind Astra Cleric 1 3.7% 3 100.0% 70.4% 60.0% 59.3% 1251
2 Fire Oblation 1 3.7% 3 100.0% 58.7% 60.0% 54.1% 1283
3 Fire Crux Lorraine 2 7.4% 5 80.0% 63.7% 56.7% 55.0% 1457 ↑ top
4 Fire Aggro 1 3.7% 3 66.7% 59.0% 55.0% 55.4% 1202 ↓ low
5 Fire Exia 1 3.7% 3 66.7% 51.6% 55.0% 51.9% 1294
6 Water Fractal 1 3.7% 3 66.7% 48.0% 53.3% 49.8% 1516 ↑ top
7 Fire Crux Mage 1 3.7% 3 66.7% 57.3% 53.3% 53.4% 1323
8 Fire Umbra Guardian 2 7.4% 6 50.0% 42.5% 52.7% 49.6% 1294
9 Wind Seiryuu 3 11.1% 9 55.6% 50.2% 52.1% 50.7% 1310
10 Fire Aetherwing 3 11.1% 9 55.6% 52.3% 48.5% 49.4% 1411 ↑ top
11 Wind Shadowstrike 3 11.1% 8 43.8% 45.8% 47.9% 48.3% 1248
12 Wind Razorgale 1 3.7% 3 16.7% 39.6% 46.0% 46.7% 1184 ↓ low
13 Water Astra Diana 1 3.7% 3 33.3% 51.5% 45.0% 50.1% 1254
14 Fire Suzaku 1 3.7% 3 33.3% 47.7% 44.0% 47.0% 1187 ↓ low
15 Water Tera Cleric 1 3.7% 3 33.3% 49.4% 44.0% 48.7% 1130 ↓ low
16 Water Aetherwing 1 3.7% 3 33.3% 55.8% 42.9% 49.5% 1101 ↓ low
17 Slimes 1 3.7% 2 0.0% 41.0% 40.0% 45.1% 1110 ↓ low
18 Water Crux Assassin 1 3.7% 3 0.0% 39.6% 40.0% 45.3% 1028 ↓ low
19 Water Umbra Guardian 1 3.7% 3 0.0% 24.5% 40.0% 38.1% 1216 ↓ low