← Honors Ground PTM Store Championship 2026
Water Tera MageTier 1
at Honors Ground PTM Store Championship 2026
decks
2
(10.5% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
8
5-2-1
overall winrate
68.8%
ELO-adjusted winrate
63.8%
avg ELO +6.6 per match
expected value
55.5%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
55.9%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1285
· median 1285
· range 1169–1400
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1107
Q1 1186
Q3 1331
1421
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
50% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Aggro | 21.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 10.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 10.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.7% | +15.5 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 10.5% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 56.9% | +5.1 |
| Fire Suited | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 5.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.7% | -10.0 |
| Water Genbu | 5.3% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.2% | -6.0 |
| Wind Allies | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 5.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.2% | +13.2 |
| Wind Lorraine | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 5.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 65.6% | +25.0 |
