← Phantom Monarchs Store Championship
EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Phantom Monarchs Store Championship.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fire Umbra Guardian | 1 | 8.3% | 5 | 90.0% | 67.9% | 58.0% | 56.4% | 1368 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Water Aetherwing | 1 | 8.3% | 3 | 66.7% | 56.6% | 53.3% | 53.1% | 1213 | ↓ low |
| 3 | Water Fractal | 1 | 8.3% | 4 | 62.5% | 44.9% | 53.3% | 47.7% | 1447 | ↑ top |
| 4 | Wind Neos Tonoris | 1 | 8.3% | 3 | 66.7% | 51.3% | 53.3% | 50.6% | 1525 | ↑ top |
| 5 | Wind Wakeup Combo | 1 | 8.3% | 5 | 60.0% | 55.0% | 52.5% | 51.9% | 1417 | ↑ top |
| 6 | Fire Firebloom Burn | 1 | 8.3% | 4 | 50.0% | 51.9% | 50.0% | 50.8% | 1198 | ↓ low |
| 7 | Water Ravishing Mill | 1 | 8.3% | 3 | 50.0% | 46.3% | 50.0% | 48.3% | 1302 | — |
| 8 | Fire Aggro | 1 | 8.3% | 3 | 33.3% | 53.2% | 46.7% | 51.5% | 997 | ↓ low |
| 9 | Wind Luxem Assassin | 1 | 8.3% | 3 | 33.3% | 50.7% | 46.7% | 50.3% | 1163 | ↓ low |
| 10 | Fire Suited | 1 | 8.3% | 3 | 16.7% | 32.5% | 43.3% | 41.9% | 1157 | ↓ low |
| 11 | Fire Umbra Alice | 1 | 8.3% | 3 | 16.7% | 42.5% | 43.3% | 46.5% | 1104 | ↓ low |
| 12 | Wind Crux Mage | 1 | 8.3% | 3 | 16.7% | 41.2% | 43.3% | 45.9% | 1454 | ↑ top |