Water FractalTier 1
at Kayfabe Store Champs
decks
2
(15.4% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
9
6-3-0
overall winrate
66.7%
ELO-adjusted winrate
62.9%
avg ELO +6.0 per match
expected value
54.3%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
54.6%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1366
· median 1366
· range 1296–1436
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1004
Q1 1220
Q3 1436
1632
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Mage | 7.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 7.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 7.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.9% | +11.1 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 7.7% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.0% | -3.9 |
| Water Crux Merlin | 7.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.9% | +6.2 |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 7.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.4% | +19.9 |
| Water Slimes | 7.7% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 62.1% | +11.6 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 7.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 7.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.2% | -7.6 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 7.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 7.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.4% | +8.7 |
Decklists · 2 from this event
The 2 public Water Fractal decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
