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Water FractalTier 1
at Topspot PTM Store Championship
decks
1
(4.3% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
5
4-0-1
overall winrate
90.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
68.7%
avg ELO +10.7 per match
expected value
58.8%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
59.0%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1516
· median 1516
· range 1516–1516
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1010
Q1 1186
Q3 1460
1736
100% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Seiryuu | 17.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.8% | +20.4 |
| Arcane | 8.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 8.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aetherwing | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Byakko | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 4.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.7% | +17.1 |
| Horse and Taxes | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Assassin | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Ciel | 4.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.3% | +3.7 |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Arisanna | 4.3% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.8% | +4.5 |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 4.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.0% | +8.0 |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Fractal decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
