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Water Umbra GuardianTier 2
at Topspot PTM Store Championship
decks
1
(4.3% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
6
1-4-1
overall winrate
25.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
34.2%
avg ELO -8.4 per match
expected value
43.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
43.2%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1255
· median 1255
· range 1255–1255
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1010
Q1 1186
Q3 1460
1736
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Seiryuu | 17.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.9% | -13.0 |
| Arcane | 8.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 8.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.7% | -19.6 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Byakko | 4.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.8% | -11.5 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 4.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.8% | -11.5 |
| Fire Slimes | 4.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.5% | +8.8 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 4.3% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.6% | -3.8 |
| Water Crux Assassin | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Ciel | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Arisanna | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Umbra Guardian decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
