← Topspot PTM Store Championship
Wind SeiryuuTier 2
at Topspot PTM Store Championship
Pilot Skill ↑ top
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arcane | 8.7% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 33.8% | -12.1 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 8.7% | 3 | 0-2-1 | 16.7% | 35.7% | 30.8% | -14.3 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 4.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.0% | +3.2 |
| Fire Arcane | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Byakko | 4.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.0% | +4.9 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 4.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.0% | +4.9 |
| Fire Slimes | 4.3% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 54.4% | +4.2 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 4.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 47.8% | -3.5 |
| Horse and Taxes | 4.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.9% | -9.7 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Assassin | 4.3% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 57.8% | +7.5 |
| Water Fractal | 4.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.2% | -20.4 |
| Water Genbu | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Ciel | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 4.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.1% | +13.0 |
| Wind Allies | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Arisanna | 4.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 47.4% | -4.2 |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 4.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.6% | -15.0 |
Decklists · 4 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 25 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 25 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Orb of Sealing | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Calming Breeze | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Reclaim | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Resolute Stand | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Longtail Grovesward | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Candlelight Hourglass | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Displace | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Veiling Breeze | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Stolen Chance | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sunblessed Gazelle | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Beseech the Winds | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Harness Lightning | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lost Providence | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Unmake Duality | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Trained Hawk | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Beseeched Fatestone | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| The Looking Glass | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Blinding Lapse | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Brisk Windtrotter | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Dream Fairy | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Regal Inquisition | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Ducal Seal | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Seiryuu's Command | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |