EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Cardpoint Regionals PTM.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wind Wakeup Combo | 1 | 3.7% | 8 | 87.5% | 57.0% | 58.7% | 53.4% | 1584 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Water Genbu | 1 | 3.7% | 8 | 75.0% | 59.5% | 56.5% | 54.2% | 1481 | ↑ top |
| 3 | Wind Arcane | 1 | 3.7% | 6 | 66.7% | 65.7% | 56.4% | 57.0% | 1266 | — |
| 4 | Fire Aetherwing | 1 | 3.7% | 5 | 60.0% | 51.6% | 55.1% | 52.6% | 1334 | ↑ top |
| 5 | Fire Exia | 1 | 3.7% | 6 | 58.3% | 56.6% | 54.2% | 52.8% | 1325 | — |
| 6 | Horse and Taxes | 1 | 3.7% | 6 | 58.3% | 55.2% | 53.8% | 53.6% | 1319 | — |
| 7 | Slimes | 1 | 3.7% | 6 | 41.7% | 53.5% | 53.6% | 54.8% | 1222 | ↓ low |
| 8 | Wind Shadowstrike | 2 | 7.4% | 12 | 50.0% | 52.7% | 52.4% | 52.4% | 1302 | — |
| 9 | Wind Allies | 2 | 7.4% | 9 | 50.0% | 40.0% | 52.0% | 46.7% | 1336 | ↑ top |
| 10 | Water Fractal | 2 | 7.4% | 12 | 66.7% | 70.4% | 50.8% | 54.0% | 1279 | — |
| 11 | Fire Firebloom Burn | 1 | 3.7% | 5 | 50.0% | 51.0% | 50.0% | 50.6% | 1286 | — |
| 12 | Wind Seiryuu | 5 | 18.5% | 28 | 42.9% | 47.6% | 48.8% | 50.1% | 1247 | — |
| 13 | Wind Astra Cleric | 1 | 3.7% | 6 | 50.0% | 56.3% | 47.3% | 50.6% | 1148 | ↓ low |
| 14 | Fire Oblation | 1 | 3.7% | 5 | 40.0% | 40.4% | 47.1% | 44.6% | 1277 | — |
| 15 | Fire Umbra Alice | 1 | 3.7% | 5 | 40.0% | 40.4% | 47.1% | 44.6% | 1277 | — |
| 16 | Water Neos | 1 | 3.7% | 5 | 40.0% | 39.3% | 46.7% | 45.1% | 1312 | — |
| 17 | Water Overlord | 1 | 3.7% | 5 | 40.0% | 39.3% | 46.7% | 45.1% | 1312 | — |
| 18 | Fire Tera Cleric | 1 | 3.7% | 4 | 25.0% | 44.8% | 46.2% | 50.0% | 1180 | ↓ low |
| 19 | Fire Crux Mage | 1 | 3.7% | 7 | 28.6% | 41.3% | 45.0% | 46.8% | 1262 | — |
| 20 | Water Aetherwing | 2 | 7.4% | 8 | 37.5% | 43.9% | 42.2% | 43.3% | 1229 | ↓ low |
| 21 | Fire Umbra Guardian | 1 | 3.7% | 4 | 12.5% | 27.0% | 41.0% | 39.7% | 1188 | ↓ low |