← Solar Quester Grand Archive PTM Store Championship

EV ranking

How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Solar Quester Grand Archive PTM Store Championship. EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O), renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5. Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead -- same math, skill-controlled. Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches) — read them as rough estimates.

#Archetype Decks Share Matches Winrate Adj WR EV Adj EV Avg ELO Skew
1 Wind Shadowstrike 1 7.7% 4 100.0% 63.9% 60.0% 55.6% 1509 ↑ top
2 Wind Umbra Diana 1 7.7% 4 75.0% 59.8% 56.0% 55.4% 1314
3 Wind Wakeup Combo 1 7.7% 4 75.0% 55.8% 56.0% 53.0% 1412 ↑ top
4 Fire Tera Tamer 1 7.7% 4 75.0% 60.6% 55.0% 54.2% 1278
5 Fire Umbra Guardian 2 15.4% 6 58.3% 48.1% 51.7% 49.4% 1334
6 Fire Crux Mage 1 7.7% 4 50.0% 58.9% 50.0% 53.6% 1192 ↓ low
7 Horse and Taxes 1 7.7% 4 50.0% 46.0% 50.0% 48.4% 1424 ↑ top
8 Wind Crux Mage 1 7.7% 4 37.5% 44.2% 48.0% 48.2% 1337 ↑ top
9 Fire Suited 1 7.7% 3 33.3% 46.2% 45.0% 47.5% 1245
10 Fire Exia 1 7.7% 3 0.0% 37.2% 40.0% 43.8% 1164 ↓ low
11 Fire Umbra Ranger 1 7.7% 3 0.0% 36.4% 40.0% 44.6% 1046 ↓ low
12 Water Ravishing Mill 1 7.7% 3 0.0% 38.1% 40.0% 44.5% 1063 ↓ low