EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Phantom Monarch Regional.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
2nd
Wind Shadowstrike
57.5%
↑ top
1st
Wind Astra Cleric
61.0%
↑ top
3rd
Water Ravishing Mill
55.7%
↑ top
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wind Astra Cleric | 1 | 7.1% | 7 | 85.7% | 65.6% | 61.0% | 57.6% | 1405 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Wind Shadowstrike | 2 | 14.3% | 12 | 66.7% | 60.3% | 57.5% | 55.1% | 1332 | ↑ top |
| 3 | Water Ravishing Mill | 1 | 7.1% | 6 | 66.7% | 53.5% | 55.7% | 52.3% | 1340 | ↑ top |
| 4 | Water Aetherwing | 1 | 7.1% | 6 | 58.3% | 50.3% | 52.1% | 50.7% | 1378 | ↑ top |
| 5 | Water Tera Kongming | 1 | 7.1% | 5 | 50.0% | 55.2% | 51.0% | 52.9% | 1165 | ↓ low |
| 6 | Fire Suited | 1 | 7.1% | 4 | 50.0% | 52.4% | 50.0% | 50.9% | 1189 | ↓ low |
| 7 | Fire Aetherwing | 1 | 7.1% | 5 | 40.0% | 41.8% | 46.7% | 44.5% | 1311 | ↑ top |
| 8 | Wind Seiryuu | 3 | 21.4% | 9 | 33.3% | 47.0% | 45.1% | 48.6% | 1203 | ↓ low |
| 9 | Wind Lorraine | 1 | 7.1% | 4 | 25.0% | 42.5% | 45.0% | 47.0% | 1153 | ↓ low |
| 10 | Fire Crux Mage | 1 | 7.1% | 4 | 25.0% | 32.4% | 43.3% | 40.8% | 1207 | ↓ low |
| 11 | Fire Suzaku | 1 | 7.1% | 4 | 0.0% | 34.0% | 40.0% | 43.6% | 1127 | ↓ low |