← Phantom Monarchs – Store Championship
Water AlliesTier 1
at Phantom Monarchs – Store Championship
decks
1
(8.3% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
6
5-1-0
overall winrate
83.3%
ELO-adjusted winrate
54.4%
avg ELO +2.3 per match
expected value
58.6%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
52.4%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1490
· median 1490
· range 1490–1490
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1150
Q1 1314
Q3 1438
1493
100% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Genbu | 16.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.5% | +7.2 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 16.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.1% | +3.4 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 8.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 8.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 8.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 8.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.4% | +7.0 |
| Water Dawn of Ashes | 8.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 8.3% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 43.6% | -6.2 |
| Wind Allies | 8.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.4% | +8.7 |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Allies decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
