← Phantom Monarchs – Store Championship
Water FractalTier 1
at Phantom Monarchs – Store Championship
decks
1
(8.3% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
6
3-2-1
overall winrate
58.3%
ELO-adjusted winrate
58.8%
avg ELO +4.7 per match
expected value
51.7%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
52.5%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1445
· median 1445
· range 1445–1445
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1150
Q1 1314
Q3 1438
1493
100% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Genbu | 16.7% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 56.1% | +5.8 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 16.7% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 44.0% | -9.5 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 8.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 8.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 8.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 8.3% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 56.4% | +6.2 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 8.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Dawn of Ashes | 8.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.5% | +13.7 |
| Wind Allies | 8.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Fractal decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
