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Fire AggroTier 1
at Phantom Monarchs Store Champs
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Fractal | 11.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 11.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 5.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.8% | -5.2 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 5.9% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 35.6% | -13.9 |
| Slimes | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 5.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.5% | +18.4 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 5.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.4% | +8.6 |
| Water Slimes | 5.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.0% | +12.7 |
| Wind Lorraine | 5.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.1% | +9.7 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 5.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.9% | +14.2 |
Decklists · 2 from this event
The 2 public Fire Aggro decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 39 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 39 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Molten Echo | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Reduce to Ash | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Merlin, Memorite Vassal | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Increasing Danger | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Cheshire Cat, Impish Grin | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Palvor Sword | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Lurking Assailant | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Heated Vengeance | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Undying Dreams | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Varuckan Soulknife | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cinder Geyser | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Demolition | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Xiao Qiao, Cinderkeeper | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Backup Charger | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Creative Shock | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Prismspire Scepter | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Inert Sword | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Unmake Duality | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Vengeful Paramour | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Incinerated Templar | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Dazzling Courtesan | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blazing Throw | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Bill, Chimney Sweep | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Searing Rebuke | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Clumsy Apprentice | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Corhazi Courier | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Incapacitate | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tweedledum, Rattled Dancer | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fanatical Devotee | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fiery Interference | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Red Hare, Unrivaled Stallion | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Poisoned Dagger | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Alice, Distorted Queen | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Impact Hammer | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Flamebound Draug | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 |