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Water FractalTier 1
at Phantom Monarchs Store Champs
decks
2
(11.8% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
10
5-4-1
overall winrate
55.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
57.7%
avg ELO +3.5 per match
expected value
51.2%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
53.2%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1338
· median 1338
· range 1159–1517
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1114
Q1 1214
Q3 1436
1597
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
50% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Aggro | 11.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 11.8% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 54.5% | +4.4 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 5.9% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 50.6% | +0.6 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 5.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.1% | +8.2 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 5.9% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 68.4% | +17.7 |
| Water Slimes | 5.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.3% | -12.4 |
| Wind Lorraine | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 5.9% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.5% | -3.4 |
