Fire Umbra AliceTier 2
at PTM Store Championship
decks
1
(5.3% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
4
1-2-1
overall winrate
37.5%
ELO-adjusted winrate
52.0%
avg ELO +1.3 per match
expected value
47.5%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
50.8%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1057
· median 1057
· range 1057–1057
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1031
Q1 1106
Q3 1322
1516
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
100% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Suzaku | 15.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 15.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 10.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 5.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.4% | -9.0 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 5.3% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.7% | +4.3 |
| Water Aetherwing | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 5.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.5% | +18.3 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 5.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.8% | -8.4 |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Fire Umbra Alice decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
