Water GenbuTier 1
at PTM Store Championship
decks
3
(15.8% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
15
9-5-1
overall winrate
63.3%
ELO-adjusted winrate
48.8%
avg ELO -0.5 per match
expected value
52.8%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
48.1%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1378
· median 1322
· range 1295–1516
(3 pilots with an ELO rating)
1031
Q1 1106
Q3 1322
1516
33% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Suzaku | 15.8% | 4 | 1-3-0 | 25.0% | 37.5% | 33.9% | -10.3 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 10.5% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 58.5% | +6.3 |
| Fire Aggro | 5.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.2% | +9.9 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 5.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.5% | -20.0 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 5.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.9% | +14.3 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 5.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.3% | +8.5 |
| Fire Oblation | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Alice | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 5.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.8% | -19.5 |
| Water Tera Mage | 5.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.7% | +10.8 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 5.3% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 55.6% | +5.4 |
Decklists · 3 from this event
The 3 public Water Genbu decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
