EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at JWW PTM Store Championship.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
2nd
Fire Luxem Assassin
61.0%
↑ top
1st
Fire Umbra Guardian
63.7%
↑ top
3rd
Water Aetherwing
57.5%
↑ top
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fire Umbra Guardian | 1 | 6.2% | 6 | 91.7% | 68.6% | 63.7% | 61.0% | 1538 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Fire Luxem Assassin | 1 | 6.2% | 5 | 60.0% | 47.4% | 61.0% | 52.6% | 1689 | ↑ top |
| 3 | Water Aetherwing | 1 | 6.2% | 6 | 66.7% | 48.0% | 57.5% | 51.7% | 1590 | ↑ top |
| 4 | Wind Arcane | 1 | 6.2% | 4 | 62.5% | 69.1% | 56.0% | 63.7% | 1201 | ↓ low |
| 5 | Wind Shadowstrike | 5 | 31.2% | 18 | 55.6% | 48.5% | 51.7% | 49.6% | 1306 | — |
| 6 | Water Crux Mage | 1 | 6.2% | 4 | 50.0% | 50.4% | 50.0% | 49.5% | 1259 | — |
| 7 | Wind Umbra Ranger | 1 | 6.2% | 5 | 50.0% | 59.3% | 50.0% | 52.9% | 1237 | — |
| 8 | Fire Crux Lorraine | 1 | 6.2% | 4 | 37.5% | 50.2% | 43.8% | 49.1% | 1209 | ↓ low |
| 9 | Slimes | 1 | 6.2% | 4 | 25.0% | 40.6% | 42.5% | 44.3% | 1087 | ↓ low |
| 10 | Wind Slice & Dice | 1 | 6.2% | 4 | 0.0% | 30.6% | 40.0% | 42.2% | 1095 | ↓ low |
| 11 | Fire Exia | 1 | 6.2% | 4 | 37.5% | 47.6% | 39.5% | 45.0% | 1079 | ↓ low |
| 12 | Fire Suited | 1 | 6.2% | 4 | 37.5% | 47.6% | 39.5% | 45.0% | 1079 | ↓ low |
| 13 | Water Astra Ranger | 1 | 6.2% | 4 | 25.0% | 39.7% | 38.1% | 41.5% | 1161 | ↓ low |