EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at PTM Store Championships.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wind Shadowstrike | 2 | 6.9% | 9 | 94.4% | 65.0% | 61.0% | 55.6% | 1436 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Fire Crux Mage | 2 | 6.9% | 11 | 77.3% | 66.2% | 54.0% | 53.3% | 1368 | ↑ top |
| 3 | Water Genbu | 1 | 3.4% | 5 | 70.0% | 55.7% | 53.8% | 51.5% | 1313 | ↑ top |
| 4 | Fire Aetherwing | 1 | 3.4% | 5 | 70.0% | 62.3% | 52.7% | 53.3% | 1305 | ↑ top |
| 5 | Wind Byakko | 1 | 3.4% | 5 | 60.0% | 49.2% | 51.4% | 49.6% | 1335 | ↑ top |
| 6 | Wind Allies | 1 | 3.4% | 5 | 60.0% | 57.3% | 51.1% | 51.9% | 1222 | — |
| 7 | Wind Wakeup Combo | 1 | 3.4% | 5 | 60.0% | 57.3% | 51.1% | 51.9% | 1222 | — |
| 8 | Fire Firebloom Burn | 3 | 10.3% | 16 | 56.2% | 57.5% | 51.1% | 52.1% | 1223 | — |
| 9 | Wind Astra Cleric | 1 | 3.4% | 5 | 50.0% | 47.9% | 50.0% | 49.1% | 1216 | — |
| 10 | Fire Suzaku | 1 | 3.4% | 5 | 50.0% | 50.3% | 50.0% | 50.3% | 1191 | ↓ low |
| 11 | Slimes | 1 | 3.4% | 6 | 33.3% | 40.6% | 48.8% | 48.8% | 1153 | ↓ low |
| 12 | Fire Exia | 2 | 6.9% | 6 | 41.7% | 46.7% | 48.6% | 49.5% | 1211 | — |
| 13 | Fire Slimes | 1 | 3.4% | 5 | 50.0% | 52.4% | 48.6% | 49.6% | 1193 | ↓ low |
| 14 | Wind Seiryuu | 2 | 6.9% | 9 | 44.4% | 46.6% | 48.2% | 48.2% | 1235 | — |
| 15 | Fire Umbra Diana | 1 | 3.4% | 5 | 50.0% | 46.4% | 47.1% | 46.0% | 1425 | ↑ top |
| 16 | Fire Neos | 1 | 3.4% | 4 | 37.5% | 45.0% | 46.7% | 47.2% | 1207 | ↓ low |
| 17 | Wind Merlin | 1 | 3.4% | 4 | 25.0% | 41.3% | 46.7% | 47.7% | 1148 | ↓ low |
| 18 | Fire Suited | 1 | 3.4% | 5 | 40.0% | 49.5% | 45.7% | 48.3% | 1157 | ↓ low |
| 19 | Water Umbra Guardian | 1 | 3.4% | 5 | 30.0% | 42.8% | 45.0% | 46.7% | 1134 | ↓ low |
| 20 | Fire Luxem Assassin | 1 | 3.4% | 5 | 40.0% | 46.9% | 45.0% | 46.3% | 1408 | ↑ top |
| 21 | Fire Oblation | 1 | 3.4% | 4 | 12.5% | 36.1% | 42.5% | 44.3% | 1169 | ↓ low |
| 22 | Fire Umbra Ciel | 1 | 3.4% | 6 | 16.7% | 34.5% | 42.5% | 43.7% | 1098 | ↓ low |
| 23 | Wind Arcane | 1 | 3.4% | 4 | 25.0% | 42.0% | 41.7% | 44.7% | 1302 | ↑ top |
| 24 | Water Astra Diana | 1 | 3.4% | 3 | 0.0% | 30.1% | 40.0% | 40.7% | 1129 | ↓ low |