← Store Championship Postboardgaming Lexington
Fire Umbra GuardianTier 1
at Store Championship Postboardgaming Lexington
decks
1
(5.3% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
4
3-1-0
overall winrate
75.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
57.8%
avg ELO +5.0 per match
expected value
51.4%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
51.5%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1386
· median 1386
· range 1386–1386
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1045
Q1 1145
Q3 1261
1652
100% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Shadowstrike | 15.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.9% | -4.9 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 10.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 10.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 10.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.3% | +6.9 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 10.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Mage | 5.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.6% | +8.9 |
| Water Aetherwing | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Cleric | 5.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.7% | +9.1 |
| Water Umbra Ranger | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Fire Umbra Guardian decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
