EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at PTM Store Championship.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fire Crux Lorraine | 1 | 4.8% | 3 | 100.0% | 66.8% | 60.0% | 58.2% | 1280 | — |
| 2 | Water Allies | 1 | 4.8% | 3 | 83.3% | 62.2% | 57.1% | 56.1% | 1355 | ↑ top |
| 3 | Water Ravishing Mill | 1 | 4.8% | 3 | 83.3% | 62.2% | 57.1% | 56.1% | 1355 | ↑ top |
| 4 | Fire Suzaku | 1 | 4.8% | 3 | 66.7% | 56.8% | 55.0% | 53.7% | 1346 | — |
| 5 | Wind Wakeup Combo | 2 | 9.5% | 7 | 57.1% | 56.2% | 52.5% | 53.3% | 1327 | — |
| 6 | Wind Seiryuu | 2 | 9.5% | 5 | 60.0% | 42.4% | 52.0% | 46.3% | 1438 | ↑ top |
| 7 | Water Aetherwing | 4 | 19.0% | 9 | 55.6% | 53.4% | 51.7% | 52.0% | 1305 | — |
| 8 | Wind Shadowstrike | 2 | 9.5% | 7 | 35.7% | 43.4% | 49.2% | 50.3% | 1302 | — |
| 9 | Water Fractal | 1 | 4.8% | 3 | 33.3% | 39.7% | 46.7% | 45.1% | 1479 | ↑ top |
| 10 | Fire Aggro | 3 | 14.3% | 8 | 37.5% | 47.8% | 46.2% | 47.5% | 1225 | ↓ low |
| 11 | Wind Razorgale | 1 | 4.8% | 3 | 50.0% | 55.0% | 45.7% | 49.6% | 1206 | ↓ low |
| 12 | Water Astra Cleric | 1 | 4.8% | 3 | 33.3% | 43.8% | 42.5% | 43.9% | 1173 | ↓ low |
| 13 | Fire Aetherwing | 1 | 4.8% | 2 | 0.0% | 34.5% | 40.0% | 40.7% | 1215 | ↓ low |
| 14 | Fire Firebloom Burn | 1 | 4.8% | 3 | 0.0% | 34.8% | 40.0% | 43.4% | 1124 | ↓ low |