Fire Crux LorraineTier 1
at 8號卡牌屋店冠賽
decks
2
(9.1% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
12
7-3-2
overall winrate
66.7%
ELO-adjusted winrate
64.5%
avg ELO +6.2 per match
expected value
51.7%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
52.5%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1293
· median 1293
· range 1275–1311
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1079
Q1 1265
Q3 1431
1591
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Fractal | 13.6% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 47.8% | -2.1 |
| Water Aetherwing | 9.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 9.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.0% | -9.5 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 9.1% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 45.9% | -3.9 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 9.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.2% | +6.8 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 9.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aetherwing | 4.5% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 54.7% | +7.5 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 4.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.3% | +10.1 |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 4.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.2% | +13.2 |
| Fire Oblation | 4.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 63.9% | +22.2 |
| Fire Umbra Alice | 4.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 63.9% | +22.2 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 4.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.7% | +13.9 |
| Water Crux Assassin | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 2 from this event
The 2 public Fire Crux Lorraine decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
