Horse and TaxesTier 2
at 8號卡牌屋店冠賽
decks
1
(4.5% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
6
2-3-1
overall winrate
41.7%
ELO-adjusted winrate
56.4%
avg ELO +3.4 per match
expected value
45.6%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
50.0%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1322
· median 1322
· range 1322–1322
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1079
Q1 1265
Q3 1431
1591
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Fractal | 13.6% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 47.6% | -2.3 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 9.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.3% | -13.9 |
| Water Aetherwing | 9.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 9.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 9.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 9.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 9.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aetherwing | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 4.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 64.8% | +23.8 |
| Fire Umbra Alice | 4.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 64.8% | +23.8 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Assassin | 4.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.7% | -8.4 |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Horse and Taxes decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
