← HeldenTaverne Jena - Store Championship "Phantom Monarchs"
Water AlliesTier 1
at HeldenTaverne Jena - Store Championship "Phantom Monarchs"
decks
1
(11.1% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
4
4-0-0
overall winrate
100.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
57.2%
avg ELO +4.6 per match
expected value
60.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
52.7%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1490
· median 1490
· range 1490–1490
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
976
Q1 1171
Q3 1268
1490
100% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Crux Assassin | 22.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.1% | +3.4 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 11.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.6% | +5.7 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 11.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 11.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.5% | +4.0 |
| Water Chess | 11.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 11.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Merlin | 11.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.3% | +5.2 |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Allies decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
