← HeldenTaverne Jena - Store Championship "Phantom Monarchs"
Water Crux AssassinTier 2
at HeldenTaverne Jena - Store Championship "Phantom Monarchs"
decks
2
(22.2% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
6
1-5-0
overall winrate
16.7%
ELO-adjusted winrate
35.3%
avg ELO -7.8 per match
expected value
43.3%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
45.1%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1170
· median 1170
· range 1142–1198
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
976
Q1 1171
Q3 1268
1490
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
50% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Mage | 11.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 11.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.8% | -14.6 |
| Water Aetherwing | 11.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.4% | -12.2 |
| Water Allies | 11.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 47.9% | -3.4 |
| Water Chess | 11.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.5% | +8.8 |
| Water Tera Mage | 11.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.2% | -14.0 |
| Wind Crux Merlin | 11.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.8% | -11.5 |
