← FTG Phantom Monarch Store Championship
EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at FTG Phantom Monarch Store Championship.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fire Oblation | 1 | 7.7% | 4 | 87.5% | 62.8% | 57.1% | 55.4% | 1536 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Wind Shadowstrike | 2 | 15.4% | 7 | 57.1% | 54.3% | 52.5% | 52.4% | 1259 | ↓ low |
| 3 | Fire Suited | 1 | 7.7% | 4 | 75.0% | 55.6% | 52.0% | 50.5% | 1389 | ↑ top |
| 4 | Water Ravishing Mill | 1 | 7.7% | 4 | 50.0% | 58.8% | 52.0% | 55.8% | 1175 | ↓ low |
| 5 | Water Fractal | 2 | 15.4% | 6 | 66.7% | 64.7% | 51.4% | 52.8% | 1273 | — |
| 6 | Fire Crux Lorraine | 2 | 15.4% | 7 | 42.9% | 42.0% | 48.3% | 47.1% | 1355 | — |
| 7 | Wind Astra Cleric | 1 | 7.7% | 3 | 33.3% | 31.0% | 48.0% | 42.2% | 1395 | ↑ top |
| 8 | Water Neos | 1 | 7.7% | 4 | 37.5% | 51.8% | 46.7% | 49.6% | 1153 | ↓ low |
| 9 | Fire Suzaku | 1 | 7.7% | 4 | 25.0% | 36.4% | 44.0% | 42.9% | 1364 | ↑ top |
| 10 | Fire Umbra Guardian | 1 | 7.7% | 3 | 0.0% | 36.2% | 40.0% | 43.0% | 1300 | — |