← FTG Phantom Monarch Store Championship

EV ranking

How well each archetype is positioned against the field at FTG Phantom Monarch Store Championship. EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O), renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5. Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead -- same math, skill-controlled. Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches) — read them as rough estimates.

#Archetype Decks Share Matches Winrate Adj WR EV Adj EV Avg ELO Skew
1 Fire Oblation 1 7.7% 4 87.5% 62.8% 57.1% 55.4% 1536 ↑ top
2 Wind Shadowstrike 2 15.4% 7 57.1% 54.3% 52.5% 52.4% 1259 ↓ low
3 Fire Suited 1 7.7% 4 75.0% 55.6% 52.0% 50.5% 1389 ↑ top
4 Water Ravishing Mill 1 7.7% 4 50.0% 58.8% 52.0% 55.8% 1175 ↓ low
5 Water Fractal 2 15.4% 6 66.7% 64.7% 51.4% 52.8% 1273
6 Fire Crux Lorraine 2 15.4% 7 42.9% 42.0% 48.3% 47.1% 1355
7 Wind Astra Cleric 1 7.7% 3 33.3% 31.0% 48.0% 42.2% 1395 ↑ top
8 Water Neos 1 7.7% 4 37.5% 51.8% 46.7% 49.6% 1153 ↓ low
9 Fire Suzaku 1 7.7% 4 25.0% 36.4% 44.0% 42.9% 1364 ↑ top
10 Fire Umbra Guardian 1 7.7% 3 0.0% 36.2% 40.0% 43.0% 1300