Fire Crux MerlinTier 2
at PTM Store Champs
decks
1
(7.1% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
3
0-3-0
overall winrate
0.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
38.0%
avg ELO -9.0 per match
expected value
40.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
44.1%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1268
· median 1268
· range 1268–1268
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1136
Q1 1264
Q3 1423
1563
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Aetherwing | 14.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.3% | -10.7 |
| Water Fractal | 14.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 14.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aetherwing | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Nico | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 7.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.3% | -9.1 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 7.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.5% | -7.1 |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Fire Crux Merlin decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
