Water FractalTier 1
at PTM Store Champs
Pilot Skill ↑ top
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Aetherwing | 14.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.9% | +14.2 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 14.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.3% | +10.1 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 7.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.6% | +8.9 |
| Wind Allies | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Nico | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 7.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 63.2% | +21.1 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 7.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.2% | +13.1 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 7.1% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 53.0% | +2.9 |
Decklists · 2 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 38 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 38 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Song of Frost | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Scepter of Fascination | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Frostbind | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sablemere, Warden's Grip | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Return to the Archive | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Staggering Strike | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Diao Chan, Enchantress | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Orb of Hubris | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Temptation's Facade | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Shimmering Refraction | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Peer Beyond | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Jianyu, Fate's Premonition | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Acquiescing Rejection | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Unstable Fractal | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nico, Rapture's Embrace | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Captivating Opulence | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Throne-Keeper Bullfrog | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Smoke Bombs | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Gentle Respite | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Prismspire Scepter | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Burst Asunder | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Unmake Duality | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Intrusion | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Storm of Thorns | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spalling Cleanse | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Turbo Charge | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Bulwark Sword | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ravishing Finale | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Cell Sharpshooter | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nico, Whiplash Allure | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Magebane Lash | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Portentous Tanggu | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 |