Water Tera MageTier 2
at PTM Store Champs
decks
1
(7.1% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
5
1-4-0
overall winrate
20.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
43.7%
avg ELO -3.7 per match
expected value
43.3%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
47.7%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1136
· median 1136
· range 1136–1136
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1136
Q1 1264
Q3 1423
1563
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
100% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Aetherwing | 14.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 14.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.4% | -8.9 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 14.3% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 54.3% | +4.2 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Nico | 7.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.1% | -6.2 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 7.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.8% | -11.4 |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Tera Mage decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
