← Grand Archive - Phantom Monarchs - Store Championship!
EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Grand Archive - Phantom Monarchs - Store Championship!.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Horse and Taxes | 1 | 10.0% | 6 | 75.0% | 64.7% | 57.2% | 57.1% | 1338 | — |
| 2 | Fire Oblation | 1 | 10.0% | 6 | 83.3% | 58.8% | 56.7% | 51.9% | 1502 | ↑ top |
| 3 | Water Aetherwing | 1 | 10.0% | 5 | 70.0% | 53.1% | 54.0% | 51.1% | 1453 | ↑ top |
| 4 | Fire Aetherwing | 1 | 10.0% | 4 | 50.0% | 40.4% | 50.0% | 46.2% | 1378 | ↑ top |
| 5 | Water Astra Ranger | 1 | 10.0% | 4 | 37.5% | 49.9% | 50.0% | 51.9% | 1247 | ↓ low |
| 6 | Fire Crux Mage | 2 | 20.0% | 7 | 42.9% | 46.6% | 48.7% | 48.8% | 1339 | — |
| 7 | Fire Neos | 1 | 10.0% | 4 | 37.5% | 50.7% | 47.5% | 50.3% | 1205 | ↓ low |
| 8 | Wind Cats | 1 | 10.0% | 3 | 0.0% | 41.8% | 40.0% | 45.8% | 1072 | ↓ low |
| 9 | Wind Shadowstrike | 1 | 10.0% | 3 | 0.0% | 36.4% | 40.0% | 43.3% | 1227 | ↓ low |