EV ranking

How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Cards Central PTM Store Champ BO3. EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O), renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5. Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead -- same math, skill-controlled. Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches) — read them as rough estimates.

2nd

Fire Aggro

55.0%

3.2% share · 3 matches

12.9% share · 23 matches

3rd

Fire Crux Lorraine

53.5%

6.5% share · 8 matches

#	Archetype	Decks	Share	Matches	Winrate	Adj WR	EV	Adj EV	Avg ELO	Skew
1	Water Fractal	4	12.9%	23	65.2%	66.7%	55.2%	55.4%	1270	—
2	Fire Aggro	1	3.2%	3	33.3%	38.4%	55.0%	50.0%	1485	↑ top
3	Fire Crux Lorraine	2	6.5%	8	43.8%	33.8%	53.5%	48.9%	1302	—
4	Fire Crux Mage	1	3.2%	6	58.3%	57.1%	53.0%	55.2%	1350	↑ top
5	Fire Umbra Guardian	1	3.2%	3	66.7%	50.5%	52.7%	49.9%	1525	↑ top
6	Fire Arcane	1	3.2%	6	66.7%	68.4%	51.7%	56.4%	1225	↓ low
7	Fire Firebloom Burn	2	6.5%	12	58.3%	57.2%	51.6%	51.9%	1219	↓ low
8	Fire Umbra Ciel	1	3.2%	5	40.0%	55.3%	50.9%	56.3%	1142	↓ low
9	Wind Seiryuu	1	3.2%	6	66.7%	59.2%	50.6%	49.9%	1334	↑ top
10	Wind Umbra Guardian	1	3.2%	6	58.3%	61.8%	48.8%	51.1%	1209	↓ low
11	Wind Shadowstrike	6	19.4%	25	50.0%	51.2%	48.5%	49.6%	1273	—
12	Water Luxem Assassin	2	6.5%	5	20.0%	32.1%	48.0%	47.2%	1356	↑ top
13	Water Neos	1	3.2%	5	40.0%	47.3%	47.9%	49.8%	1208	↓ low
14	Wind Wakeup Combo	1	3.2%	3	33.3%	45.9%	46.7%	48.1%	1305	—
15	Water Genbu	2	6.5%	12	41.7%	46.0%	46.3%	47.1%	1244	↓ low
16	Water Allies	1	3.2%	6	50.0%	38.0%	46.2%	40.8%	1392	↑ top
17	Water Seiryuu	1	3.2%	6	50.0%	38.0%	46.2%	40.8%	1392	↑ top
18	Fire Luxem Assassin	1	3.2%	3	33.3%	40.6%	45.0%	44.9%	1238	↓ low
19	Fire Suzaku	1	3.2%	2	0.0%	36.7%	40.0%	40.9%	1267	—
20	Wind Exia	1	3.2%	3	0.0%	24.6%	34.3%	32.6%	1350	↑ top