Fire Umbra GuardianTier 1
at 牌塔PTM店家冠軍賽
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Aetherwing | 16.0% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.2% | +2.1 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 16.0% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 63.9% | +10.4 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 8.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 4.0% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.7% | +1.6 |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 4.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.0% | +17.5 |
| Fire Exia | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 4.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.2% | +16.4 |
| Water Fractal | 4.0% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 44.9% | -4.9 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 4.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.8% | +15.7 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 4.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.9% | -14.6 |
| Wind Byakko | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 4.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.6% | -7.0 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 4.0% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 54.3% | +6.9 |
Decklists · 4 from this event
The 4 public Fire Umbra Guardian decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 2 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 2 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 2 mirrors we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 38 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 38 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heavenly Guide | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Feu Awakening | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Enfeebling Orb | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Meltdown | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Spirit of Serene Fire | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Devastating Blow | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Overlapping Visages | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Beguiling Coup | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Nocturne's Oblivion | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Demolition | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Annul Spell | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Resolute Stand | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Heavy Swing | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Peaceful Reunion | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Gentle Respite | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lost Providence | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Inert Sword | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Unmake Duality | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fast Cure | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cremation Ritual | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Hasty Messenger | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blazing Throw | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| The Looking Glass | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Excalibur, Reflected Edge | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ducal Seal | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Library Witch | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Topsy Decree | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spirit of Fire | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Staggering Strike | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Undeniable Truth | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sinistre Stab | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Flame Sweep | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Varuckan Acolyte | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Grim Pastiche | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |