Water Umbra GuardianTier 2
at 牌塔PTM店家冠軍賽
decks
1
(4.0% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
5
1-2-2
overall winrate
40.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
46.1%
avg ELO -2.2 per match
expected value
47.8%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
47.8%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1249
· median 1249
· range 1249–1249
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1087
Q1 1246
Q3 1386
1543
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Aetherwing | 16.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 16.0% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.9% | -0.1 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 16.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 8.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.0% | -20.8 |
| Fire Aggro | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 4.0% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.7% | -2.0 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 4.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.7% | +17.2 |
| Wind Arcane | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Byakko | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 4.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.6% | -5.5 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Umbra Guardian decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
