← Ember Rest - Store Championship - 07FEB2026
Fire Crux LorraineTier 1
at Ember Rest - Store Championship - 07FEB2026
decks
1
(7.7% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
3
2-1-0
overall winrate
66.7%
ELO-adjusted winrate
59.3%
avg ELO +7.0 per match
expected value
57.8%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
59.8%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1351
· median 1351
· range 1351–1351
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1097
Q1 1351
Q3 1474
1616
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
100% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Aetherwing | 15.4% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 70.4% | +19.6 |
| Water Genbu | 15.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 7.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.6% | -18.3 |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 7.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 7.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 7.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 7.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 7.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 7.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 7.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Fire Crux Lorraine decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
