← Ember Rest - Store Championship - 07FEB2026
Water AetherwingTier 2
at Ember Rest - Store Championship - 07FEB2026
decks
2
(15.4% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
7
2-5-0
overall winrate
28.6%
ELO-adjusted winrate
29.8%
avg ELO -10.1 per match
expected value
45.6%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
43.0%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1392
· median 1392
· range 1311–1474
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1097
Q1 1351
Q3 1474
1616
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
50% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Genbu | 15.4% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.1% | -1.9 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 7.7% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 29.6% | -19.6 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 7.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 7.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.8% | +7.7 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 7.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 7.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 36.9% | -20.9 |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 7.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.7% | -15.0 |
| Water Tera Mage | 7.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 7.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 7.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
