← IWTS Phantom Monarch Store Championships
Water Umbra GuardianTier 1
at IWTS Phantom Monarch Store Championships
decks
1
(10.0% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
4
3-1-0
overall winrate
75.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
61.2%
avg ELO +7.1 per match
expected value
56.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
55.3%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1240
· median 1240
· range 1240–1240
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1120
Q1 1166
Q3 1225
1333
100% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Razorgale | 20.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.4% | +13.5 |
| Fire Exia | 10.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 10.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.2% | +14.6 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 10.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.3% | -14.0 |
| Fire Seiryuu | 10.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Merlin | 10.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 10.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 10.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.0% | +14.4 |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Umbra Guardian decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
