Fire ArcaneTier 2
at 24 Jan Mox Saga Store Champ
decks
1
(4.0% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
5
3-2-0
overall winrate
60.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
51.0%
avg ELO +0.6 per match
expected value
48.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
46.1%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1364
· median 1364
· range 1364–1364
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1103
Q1 1226
Q3 1411
1688
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Shadowstrike | 16.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 35.2% | -23.7 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 8.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.2% | +19.5 |
| Water Aetherwing | 8.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 8.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.4% | -13.8 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 8.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 4.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.3% | +11.7 |
| Water Genbu | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 4.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.7% | +9.2 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Fire Arcane decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
