Wind ShadowstrikeTier 2
at 24 Jan Mox Saga Store Champ
decks
4
(16.0% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
18
8-9-1
overall winrate
47.2%
ELO-adjusted winrate
47.6%
avg ELO -0.9 per match
expected value
48.7%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
49.9%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1246
· median 1172
· range 1103–1538
(4 pilots with an ELO rating)
1103
Q1 1226
Q3 1411
1688
25% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
75% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 8.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 47.9% | -3.3 |
| Water Aetherwing | 8.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.4% | +16.6 |
| Water Fractal | 8.0% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 48.7% | -1.0 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 8.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.3% | -10.8 |
| Fire Arcane | 4.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 64.8% | +23.7 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 4.0% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 40.3% | -9.3 |
| Fire Neos | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 4.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.4% | +2.3 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 4.0% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 43.5% | -4.9 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 4.0% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 54.4% | +7.1 |
| Water Genbu | 4.0% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 34.5% | -14.9 |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 4.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.5% | +7.2 |
| Wind Arcane | 4.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.1% | +6.5 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
