Water Luxem AssassinTier 2
at 24 Jan Mox Saga Store Champ
decks
1
(4.0% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
5
2-3-0
overall winrate
40.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
44.7%
avg ELO -3.0 per match
expected value
43.3%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
45.5%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1411
· median 1411
· range 1411–1411
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1103
Q1 1226
Q3 1411
1688
100% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Shadowstrike | 16.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.5% | -7.2 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 8.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 8.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 8.0% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 33.4% | -16.0 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 8.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 4.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.0% | +9.6 |
| Water Genbu | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 4.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.0% | +14.4 |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Luxem Assassin decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
