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Fire Umbra GuardianTier 1
at The Trading Gallery PTM Store Championships
decks
1
(7.7% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
8
6-1-1
overall winrate
81.2%
ELO-adjusted winrate
60.6%
avg ELO +5.1 per match
expected value
60.3%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
56.0%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1499
· median 1499
· range 1499–1499
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1108
Q1 1290
Q3 1414
1548
100% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Aetherwing | 15.4% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 62.3% | +11.8 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 7.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.5% | +7.1 |
| Fire Exia | 7.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.7% | +17.1 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 7.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 7.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 7.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 7.7% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 54.0% | +3.9 |
| Water Genbu | 7.7% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 42.1% | -7.5 |
| Water Tera Mage | 7.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 7.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 7.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Fire Umbra Guardian decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
