← The Trading Gallery PTM Store Championships
Water AetherwingTier 1
at The Trading Gallery PTM Store Championships
decks
2
(15.4% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
12
6-4-2
overall winrate
58.3%
ELO-adjusted winrate
50.5%
avg ELO +0.2 per match
expected value
52.7%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
50.5%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1430
· median 1430
· range 1312–1548
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1108
Q1 1290
Q3 1414
1548
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Aetherwing | 7.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 7.7% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 65.4% | +14.8 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 7.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.7% | +5.8 |
| Fire Oblation | 7.7% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 40.4% | -9.2 |
| Fire Suited | 7.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 7.7% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 37.7% | -11.8 |
| Water Fractal | 7.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.4% | +10.2 |
| Water Genbu | 7.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.3% | +6.8 |
| Water Tera Mage | 7.7% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.2% | +3.5 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 7.7% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 44.2% | -5.6 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 7.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 2 from this event
The 2 public Water Aetherwing decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
