ArcaneTier 2
at January 2026 Month-ender
decks
1
(8.3% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
6
1-5-0
overall winrate
16.7%
ELO-adjusted winrate
47.3%
avg ELO -1.4 per match
expected value
45.7%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
49.5%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1261
· median 1261
· range 1261–1261
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1175
Q1 1183
Q3 1298
1421
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Slimes | 16.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.7% | +2.7 |
| Fire Byakko | 8.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 48.3% | -2.7 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 8.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 50.0% | +0.0 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 8.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 8.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 48.0% | -3.2 |
| Fire Seiryuu | 8.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 48.3% | -2.7 |
| Fire Suzaku | 8.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 48.3% | -2.7 |
| Water Genbu | 8.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Diao Chan | 8.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 8.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 8.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 8.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Arcane decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
