Wind Diao ChanTier 2
at January 2026 Month-ender
decks
1
(8.3% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
4
1-2-1
overall winrate
37.5%
ELO-adjusted winrate
49.0%
avg ELO -0.6 per match
expected value
49.2%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
49.9%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1229
· median 1229
· range 1229–1229
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1175
Q1 1183
Q3 1298
1421
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Slimes | 16.7% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 51.2% | +1.2 |
| Arcane | 8.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Byakko | 8.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 8.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 8.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 8.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Seiryuu | 8.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 8.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 8.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 8.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 8.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 49.0% | -1.6 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 8.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 48.0% | -3.3 |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Wind Diao Chan decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
