Fire SlimesTier 2
at January 2026 Month-ender
decks
2
(16.7% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
10
2-7-1
overall winrate
25.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
48.0%
avg ELO -0.9 per match
expected value
44.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
49.3%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1178
· median 1178
· range 1175–1180
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1175
Q1 1183
Q3 1298
1421
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
100% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arcane | 8.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 48.3% | -2.7 |
| Fire Byakko | 8.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 48.5% | -2.5 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 8.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 8.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 8.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Seiryuu | 8.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 48.5% | -2.5 |
| Fire Suzaku | 8.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 48.5% | -2.5 |
| Water Genbu | 8.3% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.3% | +0.3 |
| Wind Diao Chan | 8.3% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 48.8% | -1.2 |
| Wind Lorraine | 8.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 8.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 50.0% | +0.0 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 8.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.9% | +3.1 |
Decklists · 2 from this event
The 2 public Fire Slimes decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
