EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at RHS PTM Store Championship.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Water Aetherwing | 1 | 12.5% | 4 | 87.5% | 60.4% | 59.6% | 55.3% | 1499 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Water Crux Assassin | 1 | 12.5% | 3 | 83.3% | 56.6% | 57.5% | 53.7% | 1446 | ↑ top |
| 3 | Fire Suzaku | 1 | 12.5% | 4 | 62.5% | 56.1% | 53.9% | 53.4% | 1315 | — |
| 4 | Fire Umbra Guardian | 1 | 12.5% | 3 | 50.0% | 47.0% | 52.5% | 49.9% | 1350 | ↑ top |
| 5 | Fire Aggro | 1 | 12.5% | 3 | 33.3% | 47.6% | 50.0% | 51.1% | 1198 | ↓ low |
| 6 | Water Fractal | 2 | 25.0% | 6 | 33.3% | 46.9% | 45.3% | 48.2% | 1192 | ↓ low |
| 7 | Fire Arcane Rai | 1 | 12.5% | 3 | 0.0% | 34.6% | 35.6% | 39.2% | 1132 | ↓ low |