← Phantom Monarchs Store Championship
EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Phantom Monarchs Store Championship.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fire Umbra Guardian | 1 | 10.0% | 3 | 100.0% | 68.6% | 64.4% | 62.8% | 1385 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Wind Seiryuu | 1 | 10.0% | 3 | 66.7% | 51.8% | 55.0% | 52.3% | 1270 | — |
| 3 | Fire Oblation | 1 | 10.0% | 3 | 66.7% | 54.8% | 53.3% | 52.3% | 1336 | — |
| 4 | Wind Astra Cleric | 1 | 10.0% | 3 | 66.7% | 48.8% | 53.3% | 49.4% | 1416 | ↑ top |
| 5 | Wind Shadowstrike | 2 | 20.0% | 6 | 50.0% | 46.3% | 50.7% | 49.1% | 1323 | — |
| 6 | Water Fractal | 1 | 10.0% | 3 | 66.7% | 54.3% | 50.0% | 49.7% | 1418 | ↑ top |
| 7 | Water Aetherwing | 1 | 10.0% | 3 | 33.3% | 47.6% | 45.0% | 48.3% | 1216 | ↓ low |
| 8 | Fire Luxem Assassin | 1 | 10.0% | 3 | 0.0% | 38.0% | 40.0% | 44.1% | 1124 | ↓ low |
| 9 | Fire Aggro | 1 | 10.0% | 3 | 0.0% | 41.5% | 40.0% | 46.0% | 1129 | ↓ low |