← Zulu's Lynnwood PTM Store Championship
Fire Umbra GuardianTier 2
at Zulu's Lynnwood PTM Store Championship
decks
1
(4.5% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
4
1-2-1
overall winrate
37.5%
ELO-adjusted winrate
34.1%
avg ELO -10.2 per match
expected value
46.7%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
42.1%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1345
· median 1345
· range 1345–1345
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1102
Q1 1175
Q3 1366
1471
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arcane | 9.1% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 41.4% | -8.2 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 9.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 9.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.0% | -17.5 |
| Water Aetherwing | 9.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 9.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 9.1% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 45.7% | -6.8 |
| Fire Aggro | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Mage | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Silvie | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Fire Umbra Guardian decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
