Fire SuzakuTier 2
at EVO Store Champs
Pilot Skill ↓ low
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Genbu | 13.8% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 50.5% | +0.3 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 10.3% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 37.6% | -11.9 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 6.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.8% | +12.5 |
| Water Aetherwing | 6.9% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 48.3% | -1.3 |
| Water Fractal | 6.9% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 42.3% | -7.4 |
| Fire Aggro | 3.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 36.3% | -22.0 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 3.4% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 45.1% | -4.7 |
| Horse and Taxes | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 3.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.6% | +13.8 |
| Wind Arcane | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 3.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.6% | -8.7 |
| Wind Tera Silvie | 3.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.2% | +9.9 |
Decklists · 4 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 29 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 29 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resolute Stand | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Beastbond Paws | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Stolen Chance | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Heated Vengeance | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Coiled Fatestone | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Embercrypt Burn | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Liminal Guide | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Enfeebling Orb | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Expel the Departed | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Smoke Out | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ignite Fate | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sword of Seeking | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cinder Geyser | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Three of Hearts | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fluffy Shopkeep | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Reveal the Hidden | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Executioner's Spear | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Creative Shock | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spark Alight | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Hasty Messenger | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Restorative Flame | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blazing Throw | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Flamewreath Call | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Shatter the Brittle | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Guo Jia, Blessed Scion | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Censer of Restful Peace | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 |