Water FractalTier 1
at EVO Store Champs
decks
2
(6.9% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
11
6-4-1
overall winrate
59.1%
ELO-adjusted winrate
50.3%
avg ELO +0.1 per match
expected value
52.8%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
49.5%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1394
· median 1394
· range 1310–1478
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1063
Q1 1191
Q3 1372
1597
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Suzaku | 13.8% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 57.7% | +7.4 |
| Water Genbu | 13.8% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 54.1% | +3.9 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 10.3% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 33.7% | -12.2 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 6.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 36.9% | -20.9 |
| Water Aetherwing | 6.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 3.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.7% | +9.1 |
| Fire Slimes | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 3.4% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 64.1% | +13.5 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tera Silvie | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
