Water Umbra GuardianTier 2
at EVO Store Champs
decks
1
(3.4% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
5
3-2-0
overall winrate
60.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
53.0%
avg ELO +1.7 per match
expected value
46.7%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
46.5%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1231
· median 1231
· range 1231–1231
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1063
Q1 1191
Q3 1372
1597
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Suzaku | 13.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.4% | -13.8 |
| Water Genbu | 13.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 10.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aetherwing | 6.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.3% | -17.1 |
| Water Aetherwing | 6.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 6.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 3.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.5% | +10.4 |
| Horse and Taxes | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 3.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.1% | +11.3 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 3.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.1% | +17.8 |
| Wind Tera Silvie | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Umbra Guardian decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
